BetPTC Presents Kepp's Korner: Trainer Angles And Spot Plays For Weds. June 3
KEPP’S KORNER presented by BetPTC, is a daily handicapping analysis designed for the simulcast player that focuses on trainer angles and spot plays.
Written by handicapping veteran and author Dean Keppler (@keppskorner on Twitter), KEPP’S KORNER provides exclusive analysis for tracks in New York, Florida, Kentucky, Illinois, Louisiana and Southern California using a combination of DRF Formulator, EdBain.com trainer stats and his own personal trainer-stat data records.
Player’s Selection Guidelines:
3 Stars ***: LIVE LONGSHOT
4 Stars ****: TOP CONTENDER
5 Stars *****: BEST BET (Recommended single in both horizontal and vertical exotic wagers)
Delaware Park:
Race #4:
#6 Subtle Intent (9/5)- This filly did not disgrace herself when coming off a near 9 month layoff in last. She stumbled out of the gate, rushed up to the lead along the inside, and then faded late. Trainer Larry Jones clicks at 40% with 2nd off the Layoff runners sprinting at this racetrack with Kerwin Clark onboard. She drops into Maiden Claimers for the first time today, moves off the rail to a favorable outside draw, and should be able to carry her natural speed much further in this five furlong dash. **** (4 Stars)
Race #7:
#5 Ray Knows (2/1)- This other Larry Jones selection comes off a min-freshening for a barn that has solid numbers (5-3-1-0) with 1st after the Layoff runners at this racetrack the last 3 years. This colt goes turf to dirt, which is another strong angle for this conditioner, and has been training superbly over the track the last month. His last turf effort on March 29 has become a fairly productive race producing two next-out winners. Modern Medicine came back to win by 6 with an (82) Beyer at Hawthorne over the main track, and Nopalito won an "off the turfer" at the same track with a (64) Beyer. **** (4 Stars)
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Evangeline:
Race #1:
#5 Tony Winner (2/1)- Will offer little value in tonight's opener but hails from the powerhouse barn of leading trainer Karl Broberg. Broberg and jockey Colby Hernandez are a tremendous 10 for 14 (71%) with a $3.30 ROI with 1st after the Claim runner sprinting at this racetrack the last 5 years. Ordinarily, a colt that just won for a $12,500 tag that drops to $5,000 in his next start would be a negative sign. However, this barn usually places their stock where they can win despite the repercussions as evidence by their 55% win clip at the current meet. A potential single to start tonight's early pick four. **** (4 Stars)
Race #7:
#7 Call This Chick (9/2)- Has been a popular commodity in the claiming box the last several months, and now goes 2nd off the claim for trainer Earl Bankston who clicks at over 30% with this maneuver. This 4-year-old gelding was a sharp winner over the track two-back on April 10 over a sloppy surface, and a pair of runners have come back out of that race to also win. He appeared to take a bad step in his most recent try costing him valuable momentum, and then closed well late when amongst traffic in deep stretch. Tonight's 7 furlong distance should fit him nicely, and he's likely to rebound with one of his stronger efforts for the new connections. **** (4 Stars)
Louisiana Downs:
Race #2:
#6 Tey's Big Boy (5/2)- Returns off an 8 week plus freshening and has run very well off the layoff in the past. The jockey/trainer combo of Chris Rosier and Karl Broberg click at nearly 50% with 1st after Layoff runners at this oval. This 8-year-old gelding has trained smartly in the a.m. for return, and appears well-spotted to sit and pounce. He's 5 for 16 over the grass course. **** (4 Stars)
Race #4:
#9 Amozan Ruler (12/1)- Has run equally well over the grass, and this 9-year-old mare makes her second start off the bench for trainer Joe Foster. This barn is 13 for 40 (32%) with 2nd after Layoff runners sprinting the last 3 years. She closed decently in her last race to finish fourth, and now switches to leading rider Richard Eramia on the surface change. This gutsy mare is a multiple winner over the track and at the distance, and is likely to be more aggressively handled this afternoon. *** (3 Stars)
Woodbine:
Race #7:
#6 Flatter the Ladies (6/1)- Showed brief speed before fading in last while coming off a 6-month freshening. This 3-year-old colt by Flatter gets a complete makeover this evening for trainer Ricky Griffith. The colt adds blinkers, cuts back in distance and drops into Maiden Claimers for the first time. This barn has solid numbers with their 2nd off the bench runners, and also has above average figures with today's class drop and equipment change. His a.m. drills have been impressive. On May 8 he was "best of 44" in a sharp 5F drill, and then came back with another "best of 65" 5F effort 9 days later on May 17. The substantial class plunge, cutback, and normal 2nd off the bench improvement make him an immediate threat tonight. **** (4 Stars)
Dean Keppler has been handicapping Thoroughbreds for over 30 years, and is the former Director of DRF Press for Daily Racing Form. He’s authored two handicapping books for DRF titled: “Trainer Angles” and “Betting the Kentucky Derby,” and has published several handicapping articles for Horseplayer Magazine. Keppler has a new e-book coming out this spring for DRF titled, “Form Reversal: Increasing Profits Using Formulator and Cutting-Edge Trainer Stats.” Keppler recently qualified for the NHC 17 in Las Vegas, and his work has appeared in the New York Times, Forbes Magazine, The Saratoga Special, and several other prolific publications.
