The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Playing 'Good Trip, Bad Trip' With The 2023 Field

The Kentucky Derby is days away, which means it's time for detailed looks at the field with Andrew Champagne of Catena Media and The Saratogian's Pink Sheet.

It’s time for the final edition of The Derby Bubble. The field for the Run for the Roses is set, and with it comes plenty of speculation from fans and handicappers.

With that in mind, the season finale of this column will include a game called “Good Trip, Bad Trip.”

I’ll examine all 20 runners, plus the three also-eligibles. Last year’s column in this vein went over really well…right up until a horse I didn’t write about drew in off the Also Eligible list and won the darn thing. Never let it be said I make the same mistake twice!

Enough talk; let’s dive into the field.

Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.

#1: Hit Show

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)

Owners: Gary and Mary West

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Manny Franco

Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Good Trip: Hit Show has enough tactical speed to save a ground-saving spot going into the first turn. Not intimidated by the Derby distance, he’s among the first set of horses to make their moves when the real running starts. He’s not quite talented enough to win, but he avenges his tough beat in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial by earning a big check.

Bad Trip: The rail compromises Hit Show and he’s shuffled back in the early going. This puts the stalking-type up against it, and he struggles to gain forward momentum.

Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests. 

#2: Verifying

Pedigree: Justify – Diva Delite (by Repent)

Owners: Westerberg Limited, Magnier, Poulin, Smith, and Tabor

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

Breeder: Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm, LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 15-1

Good Trip: Long considered one of the brightest prospects in a loaded Brad Cox barn, Verifying puts it all together. His speed is used as an asset by a rider who knows Churchill Downs as well as anyone, he hits the front turning for home, and unlike in the G1 Blue Grass, he doesn’t get caught.

Bad Trip: Like one of his stablemates, the inside draw has the potential to work against him. Verifying doesn’t break smoothly, and he’s knocked out of his element from the jump (literally). This effort is less his sharp effort in the Blue Grass and more his clunker in the G2 Rebel.

Verifying was bred in Kentucky by Hunter Valley and Mountmellick Farm, out of the Grade 3-winning Repent mare Diva Delite, making him a half-brother to champion Midnight Bisou. He sold to M.V. Magnier of the Coolmore partnership for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. The breeders purchased Diva Delite for $1.2 million, with Verifying in-utero, at the 2019 Keeneland November sale.

#3: Two Phil’s

Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)

Owners: Patricia’s Hope, Sagan, and Madaket Stables

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Jockey: Jareth Loveberry

Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 12-1

Good Trip: The Two Phil’s we saw in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks is the real deal. The synthetic track form comes with him to Churchill Downs, and he storms past the field turning for home to record a popular win for a group of Kentucky Derby first-timers. Furthermore, in keeping with widespread interest in Rivelli’s barn, the classic commercial gets remade in HD and runs on all major television networks through the Preakness.

Bad Trip: Two Phil’s bounces off of what was easily a lifetime-best effort. What we see Saturday is the horse that collected minor awards in Louisiana, and that type of effort doesn’t get it done against the best of his crop.

Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.

#4: Confidence Game

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)

Owners: Don’t Tell My Wife Stables and Ocean Reef Racing

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Jockey: James Graham

Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 20-1

Good Trip: Keith Desormeaux looks like a genius. Confidence Game shows no signs of rust coming off the bench, and the rest allows him the necessary time to develop as a racehorse. He’s not good enough to win, but he adds another significant check to Desormeaux’s Derby resume.

Bad Trip: The Confidence Game we saw win the G2 Rebel turns out to need a muddy track, which doesn’t seem likely this weekend. A horse bred to love a wet track instead gets a fast one, which doesn’t play to his strengths and leads to him being a non-factor.

Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.

#5: Tapit Trice

Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)

Owners: Whisper Hill Farm and Gainesway Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Luis Saez

Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 5-1

Good Trip: Tapit Trice gets off to a smooth start, unlike his last several outings. As a result, Luis Saez doesn’t have to work so hard to ensure a smooth journey, and his mount’s sheer talent can be put on full display. He runs to his pedigree, wins the Kentucky Derby, and provides a feel-good moment for co-owner Whisper Hill Farm, which lost champion Havre de Grace last week.

Bad Trip: Those gate issues flare up again at an inopportune time. Tapit Trice gets shuffled back in front of 150,000 screaming fans, and not even world-class reinsman Saez can navigate a winning trip in that scenario.

Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#6: Kingsbarns

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)

Owner: Spendthrift Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 12-1

Good Trip: Kingsbarns finds himself up front with a slow early pace, in a carbon copy of his winning trip from the G2 Louisiana Derby. A near-certainty to be the biggest price of the three Todd Pletcher trainees despite his undefeated record, Kingsbarns hits the top of the stretch with plenty in reserve. He springs an upset that leaves many handicappers wondering how they didn’t have an undefeated Pletcher on their tickets.

Bad Trip: Unlike in Louisiana, Kingsbarns has to face legitimate opposition up front early on. With Verifying to his inside and Derma Sotogake to his outside, Kingsbarns is hounded from the opening strides, never gets comfortable, and retreats going around the far turn.

Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#7: Reincarnate

Pedigree: Good Magic – Allanah (by Scat Daddy)

Owners: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Masterson, et al

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Jockey: John Velazquez

Breeder: Woods Edge Farm, LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Good Trip: Reincarnate runs to his most recent work, a four-furlong bullet drill at Santa Anita. John Velazquez, who’s rarely in the wrong place at the wrong time, gives his mount every chance. He’s not good enough to win, but he finishes third or fourth at a big number.

Bad Trip: Reincarnate runs to his last start, where he needed to win a photo for third in the G1 Arkansas Derby to ensure his spot in the Kentucky Derby field. He’s up close early but fades when the real running starts.

Reincarnate was bred in Kentucky by Woods Edge Farm, out of the stakes-winning Scat Daddy mare Allanah. He sold for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Woods Edge Farm acquired Allanah, pregnant to Street Boss, for $105,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#8: Mage

Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca (by Big Brown)

Owners: OGMA Investments, Restrepo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 15-1

Good Trip: The phenomenon once known as the Apollo Curse is defied for the second time in less than a decade. Mage, who did not run as a 2-year-old, overcomes the gate issues that have plagued him in his two two-turn outings. In doing so, he gets the clean trip he didn’t have in the G1 Florida Derby. That allows him to turn the tables on Forte and give his Hall of Fame rider his first-ever Kentucky Derby win.

Bad Trip: They’re off, and Mage loses. Those gate issues prove tough to shake, and he once again spots his rivals several lengths right away. That, his inexperience, and the Kentucky Derby setting combine to form an insurmountable barrier.

Mage was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. He brought $235,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale, then he sold for $290,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Puca sold to Grandview Equine, pregnant to Gun Runner, for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#9: Skinner

Pedigree: Curlin – Winding Way (by Malibu Moon)

Owner: C R K Stable

Trainer: John Shirreffs

Jockey: Juan Hernandez

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 20-1

Good Trip: A horse on the improve getting one of the hottest jockeys in the country puts it all together thanks to a closer-friendly race shape. Skinner sits back beneath Juan Hernandez, makes one big run, and lights up the tote board to give his conditioner a second Kentucky Derby victory (18 years after his first with another longshot, Giacomo).

Bad Trip: Skinner turns out to have some hang in him. He’s called upon to make his move and passes several tired rivals, but starts spinning his wheels in midstretch and can’t stay with the more well-bet horses in this particular race.

Skinner was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the Grade 3-winning Malibu Moon mare Winding Way. He sold for $40,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, then he was pinhooked for $510,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring Sale. Stonestreet bought Winding Way for $660,000 at the 2015 Keeneland November sale.

#10: Practical Move

Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)

Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Jockey: Ramon Vazquez

Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 10-1

Good Trip: What’s seen by some as a history of perfect trips turns out to be a perfect marriage between a horse with tactical speed and a rider who knows how to use it. He sits the stalking trip that wins a lot of Kentucky Derbies, pounces at just the right time, and has enough left to fend off the closers.

Bad Trip: Yep, everything fell into place in the last several races perfectly for this colt. Maybe he faces adversity, or perhaps he’s just not a 10-furlong horse. However, he fades to finish in the middle of the pack and goes back to California to regroup.

Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#11: Disarm

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Easy Tap (by Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Good Trip: Team Epicenter returns with a less-fancied runner than the one they had a year ago, but they leave with a similar check. Disarm runs back to his Louisiana Derby effort, where he was the only horse making up ground in the stretch. He’s not quite talented enough to threaten the winner, but he clunks up for second at a big price.

Bad Trip: Disarm’s effort is closer to his run in the G3 Lexington, where he finished a distant third and earned just enough points to make the Derby field. Maybe the race shape isn’t so closer-friendly, and maybe he’s just not quite good enough to beat these.

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Disarm was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Tapit mare Easy Tap, who is also the dam of Venezuelan champion Tap Daddy. The Winchell operation purchased Easy Tap for $300,000 at the 2011 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale.

#12: Jace’s Road