The Xpressbet Weekend Bankroll: A Monster Day
We couldn't resist. The American Pharoah camp's marketing deal with the energy drink brand Monster aside, Saturday at Belmont Park will be a "monster" afternoon for race fans and bettors. A Triple Crown's on the line, of course, but before we get to that, there are a whopping eight other graded stakes on the card -- five of them Grade 1's in addition to the G1 Belmont.
The action gets underway with the G2 Woody Stephens Stakes at 12:39 ET, featuring the undefeated 3-year-old Competitive Edge, a winner of his first four starts by almost 30 lengths combined.
Last year's unanimous 3-year-old filly champion, Untapable, will be heavily favored to win her sixth Grade 1 event in the Ogden Phipps. Previously run the day before the Belmont, the G2 Brooklyn Invitational at the same 1 1/2-mile distance features a competitive field of a dozen runners.
The G1 Acorn field also goes a dozen deep and looks a terrific betting affair. The action switches to the turf for the G1 Just A Game and G1 Manhattan, while Tonalist heads an excellent edition of the G1 Met Mile, also a recent addition to the Belmont undercard.
Last week's bankroll competition was a barnburner, with the Paulick Report's Emily White just edging Xpressbet handicapper Merv Huber-Calvo with a return of $107 versus $99.
You'll always see a return when you use the exclusive promo code PAULICKR and sign up for an Xpressbet wagering account. You'll receive up to $125 back from Xpressbet the day after you wager your first $100.
Let's get to this week's selections.
Woody Stephens Stakes, Grade 2, Belmont Park, 7 Furlongs
Forget being the best horse in this race, #3 COMPETITIVE EDGE may be one of the best sprinters in the country. The son of Super Saver is a perfect 4-for-4 and nobody has ever come within 4 ½-lengths of him. Velazquez opts to ride him over #4 TWO WEEKS OFF and I think he’ll get a perfect stalking trip off the pacesetter, #1 READY FOR RYE. I’m going to play him over two longshots, #5 CINCO CHARLIE and #2 MARCH. CINCO CHARLIE is much better than his 15/1 ML, while MARCH will be running late.
The Play: $10 Exacta #3 Competitive Edge / #2 March, #5 Cinco Charlie ($20)
Acorn Stakes, Grade 1, Belmont Park, 1 Mile
I took a stand against #7 CONDO COMMANDO in the Kentucky Oaks and she ran 9th. Can that work again in the Acorn? I think so. This race is wide open, so I’m going to take my five favorites, including #9 PROMISE ME SILVER, who is a perfect 8-for-8 in her career, and box them in one of Belmont’s 50-cent Trifectas.
The Play: $0.50 Trifecta Box #2 Wonder Gal, #6 Curalina, #8 Shook Up, #9 Promise Me Silver, #11 Miss Ella ($30)
Recommended for You
Metropolitan Handicap, Grade 1, Belmont Park, 1 Mile
Reigning Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. Reigning Belmont Stakes winner. Five millionaires. Nine G1 or G2 winners. Just another awesome edition of the Met Mile. And while it may be boring to bet the chalk in here, #4 TONALIST is simply too good at Belmont. He’s 4-for-4 at ‘Big Sandy,’ ran huge in his comeback race here last month and should get a perfect setup as #1 PRIVATE ZONE and #7 BAYERN battle up front. TONALIST will get a jump on the closers and should be tough to reel in down the lane.
The Play: $5 Exacta #4 Tonalist / #1 Private Zone, #6 Wicked Strong, #7 Bayern, #9 Honor Code ($20)
Belmont Stakes, Grade 1, Belmont Park, 1 1/2 Miles
#5 AMERICAN PHAROAH is a shoe-in, right? A winner of five straight, including the Kentucky Derby and Xpressbet.com Preakness, he’s a shoe-in for the Triple Crown, right? Not so fast. There’s a decent chance ‘PHAROAH sweeps the Crown, but the same was said about Spectacular Bid, Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Real Quiet, California Chrome and others. So as much as I’d like to see AMERICAN PHAROAH win the Belmont, my money is on #8 MATERIALITY. He ran deceptively well in the Kentucky Derby and prior to that he ran big in a couple of 1 1/8 mile races at Gulfstream Park, including the Florida Derby. He has a great running style for the Belmont, is bred to excel at the distance and Todd Pletcher has a strong record in the last decade in the Belmont. Let’s cheer for history, but bet on MATERIALITY.
The Play: $2 Superfecta #8 Materiality / #5 American Pharoah / #3 Madefromlucky, #6 Frosted, #7 Keen Ice / All ($30)
Paulick Report handicapper: Scott Jagow, Editor-in-Chief
Brooklyn Invitational, G2, Belmont Park, 1 1/2 miles
Marathon races are always difficult to handicap because there are only a few and just a handful on the dirt. Pace and pedigree are top factors, but so is a trainer's ability to get a horse ready. Last year's Travers winner V.E. DAY is making his second start off a layoff, a move trainer Jimmy Jerkens excels with. He's also terrific switching runners from turf to dirt, which is the case here. I'll key V.E. DAY with other logical contenders.
The Play: $5 exacta key, V.E. Day/#5 Effinex, #1 Coach Inge, #9 Neck n' Neck, #10 Sky Kingdom ($20)
Acorn Stakes
You've gotta love a filly that's 8-for-8 and has won at six different tracks. PROMISE ME SILVER is stepping up in class, but she did that in her last race, the G3 Eight Belles and beat a field of 10 as easily as she had won her previous seven races. Plus, she picks up Mike Smith for this. This is a tougher group, obviously, but I'm sticking with her.
The Play: $10 to win, #9 Promise Me Silver
Just A Game Stakes, Grade 1, Belmont Park, 1 Mile, Turf
I liked SANDIVA heading into her last outing in the Distaff Turf Mile on Kentucky Derby day, but she was a little off, finishing third. Some handicappers might think she's a "horse for course," having excelled at Gulfstream, but I think she just didn't like the CD turf course, a course she didn't fire on in her 2nd start in the U.S. previously. The race before that, while at Belmont, was also her first start in the Pletcher barn. I think she runs much better here at 12-1.
The Play: $10 to win, #2 Sandiva
Met Mile
I believe, when all is said and done, TONALIST will be a serious contender for Horse of the Year. He would've been in the conversation last year, had he not been taken so far back in the Breeders' Cup Classic. He should get a good set up here, but with a solid pace, they all better watch out for HONOR CODE and his serious late kick. WICKED STRONG appears to be coming into the race like a "monster," so I can't ignore him either. PRIVATE ZONE always hangs around.
The Play: $4 exacta key Tonalist/#6 Wicked Strong, #9 Honor Code, #1 Private Zone, $1 trifecta key Tonalist/Private Zone, Wicked Strong, Honor Code ($18 total)
Belmont Stakes
I'm with Dustin on this one. I have liked MATERIALITY since before the Florida Derby, and to me, his Kentucky Derby is a toss. The previous two races were impressive efforts over a distance of a ground for a young horse going long after only one start. His pedigree suggests he can handle 1 1/2 miles, if any of these horses can, and if Victor Espinoza on American Pharoah tries to get too tactical, Materiality might just put them to sleep and go gate to wire. If not, he can reserve energy sitting just off the Triple Crown contender. I like KEEN ICE as a longshot finisher and MUBTAAHIJ has to be seriously fit for this. FROSTED also seems a danger.
The Play: $10 exacta key, #8 Materiality/#1 Mubtaahij, #7 Keen Ice, #6 Frosted, #5 American Pharoah ($40 total)
